Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 60%, yet the head-to-head data favours Granada CF — this Mallorca vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Granada CF travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mallorca — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Mallorca at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 0.90 PPG versus Granada CF's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Granada CF have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Mallorca. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Mallorca 2–3 Granada CF — a Granada CF win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Granada CF have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 6.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Granada CF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 30% | Granada CF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.83 xG and Granada CF 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.836 / defence 0.886 | Granada CF attack 0.810 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.110. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.510 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Data: built from Mallorca's last 66 games and Granada CF's last 27.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.67 | Draw 3.84 | Granada CF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Mallorca (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 6.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 50% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Mallorca 1.83 / Granada CF 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.836 / def 0.886 | Granada CF attack 0.810 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Granada CF xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Granada CF FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Granada CF kick off?
Mallorca vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Mallorca vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Granada CF part of?
Mallorca vs Granada CF is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 60% chance of winning, Granada CF a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mallorca and Granada CF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Mallorca vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 66 games and Granada CF's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.84
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.62
0.80
Granada CF xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
44.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Granada CF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.80 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 11D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.52 PPG from 27 outings (2W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mallorca's home form reads 4W 7D 2L across their last 13 home games, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.15 points per game from their last 13 away games (0W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.11 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Granada CF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Granada CF Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 17L in their last 27 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Granada CF away?
Mallorca's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.46 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 May 2022, when Granada CF won Mallorca 2-6 Granada CF.
Mallorca's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
0
Draws
3
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Granada CF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 1, Granada CF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Granada CF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 54%, Granada CF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 46% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Granada CF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Granada CF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Granada CF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Mallorca's recent matches and 46% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Granada CF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 46% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Granada CF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Mallorca's recent matches and 85% of Granada CF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.83 xG and Granada CF 0.80 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Granada CF attack 0.81 / defence 1.51, drawn from 66/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 60% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 14%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Granada CF 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 0.96 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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