Mallorca 1-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Athletic Club travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mallorca at Visit Mallorca Estadi this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Athletic Club's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.40 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mallorca, 1 for Athletic Club and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Athletic Club 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 38% | Athletic Club 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.19 xG and Athletic Club 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.961 / defence 0.858 | Athletic Club attack 1.119 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.062. Data: 69 Mallorca games / 69 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 31%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Athletic Club 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Athletic Club 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Mallorca 1.19 / Athletic Club 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.961 / def 0.858 | Athletic Club attack 1.119 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Athletic Club xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Athletic Club kick off?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Mallorca vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Athletic Club part of?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mallorca and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.96) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.46
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
Athletic Club xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.02 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 21W 16D 32L from 69 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 22L across 69 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.14 PPG, Athletic Club on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 14W 10D 10L from 34 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 13D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.23 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 69 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 21W 16D 32L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 27W 20D 22L in their last 69 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Athletic Club away?
Mallorca's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.53 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Athletic Club runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Athletic Club have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Athletic Club 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mallorca) and 41% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 32% of games; Athletic Club in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 47% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mallorca's recent games and 41% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 32, as Mallorca and Athletic Club drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.19 xG and Athletic Club 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Athletic Club attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 31%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Athletic Club 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Athletic Club 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.