Atletico Madrid 3-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano plays host to Atletico Madrid versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Madrid have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Atletico Madrid at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
Mallorca (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Atletico Madrid's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Mallorca, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
It is worth noting that Mallorca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mallorca — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 52% versus Mallorca 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 48% | Mallorca 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.84 xG and Mallorca 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.250 / defence 0.762 | Mallorca attack 0.911 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.031. Atletico Madrid's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Atletico Madrid games / 68 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Mallorca 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Mallorca lead the H2H ledger, but Atletico Madrid carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Madrid 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Atletico Madrid 1.84 / Mallorca 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.250 / def 0.762 | Mallorca attack 0.911 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Mallorca xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 64% chance of winning, Mallorca a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Madrid 0W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.91x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.57
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.56
0.72
Mallorca xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
45.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.72 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Madrid's recent record stands at 39W 14D 15L from 68 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 31L across 68 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Madrid have managed 21W 8D 5L from 34 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 7W 6D 21L across 34 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.96 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 39W 14D 15L in their last 68 games (1.93 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 21W 16D 31L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Mallorca away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.09 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atletico Madrid
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 6, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 50%, Mallorca 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico Madrid) and 41% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 41% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 41% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Mallorca tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Mallorca 3-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.84 xG and Mallorca 0.72 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.25 / defence 0.76 against Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 48%, Mallorca 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.