Osasuna 0-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.40 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Osasuna's 30% rate and Real Sociedad's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Real Sociedad have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Osasuna.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Real Sociedad winning.
It is worth noting that Real Sociedad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Real Sociedad trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Real Sociedad 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 35% | Real Sociedad 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.04 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.891 / defence 1.147 | Real Sociedad attack 0.862 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.043. Data: 69 Osasuna games / 69 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Real Sociedad 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Real Sociedad 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Osasuna 1.04 / Real Sociedad 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.891 / def 1.147 | Real Sociedad attack 0.862 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Real Sociedad xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad part of?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osasuna and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Real Sociedad 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.89) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.31
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.07
1.03
Real Sociedad xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 24W 19D 26L from 69 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 18L across 69 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 13W 8D 13L from 34 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 15W 9D 10L across 34 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.14 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Sociedad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 33W 18D 18L in their last 69 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.38 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Real Sociedad runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 44%, Real Sociedad 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 38% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 35%; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Real Sociedad in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 38% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.04 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Real Sociedad attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 35%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 35%, Real Sociedad 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.