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Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Athletic Club 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Athletic Club 3-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.36 xG and Athletic Club 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Athletic Club attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 43% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 46%, Athletic Club 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights