Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Athletic Club travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Athletic Club — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.00 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Athletic Club and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Athletic Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Athletic Club 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 46% | Athletic Club 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.36 xG and Athletic Club 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.000 / defence 1.113 | Athletic Club attack 0.829 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.109. Data: 57 Mallorca games / 57 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 43% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Athletic Club 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 70% | Athletic Club 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 43% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Mallorca 1.36 / Athletic Club 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.000 / def 1.113 | Athletic Club attack 0.829 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Athletic Club xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Athletic Club kick off?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Mallorca 3 - 2 Athletic Club.
Where is Mallorca vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Athletic Club part of?
Mallorca vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 43% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mallorca and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Record (9 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 5 | Athletic Club 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.00) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.23
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
Athletic Club xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.02 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 15L across 57 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 10D 8L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 9D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.25 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Athletic Club away?
Mallorca's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.43 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Athletic Club runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Athletic Club have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 64%, Athletic Club 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mallorca) and 36% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 32%; Athletic Club in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mallorca's games and 46% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mallorca's recent games and 36% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Athletic Club 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Athletic Club 3-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.36 xG and Athletic Club 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Athletic Club attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 43% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 46%, Athletic Club 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.