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Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.94 xG and Alaves 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 28% | Draw 34% | Alaves 37%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 41%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Alaves 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights