Mallorca 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 27 September 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Alaves have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Mallorca 2W, Alaves 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Alaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 41% | Alaves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.94 xG and Alaves 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.821 / defence 1.078 | Alaves attack 0.887 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.157. Alaves's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Mallorca games / 44 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 28% | Draw 34% | Alaves 37%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Alaves 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 80% | Alaves 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 28% | Draw 34% | Alaves 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 0.94 / Alaves 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.821 / def 1.078 | Alaves attack 0.887 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Alaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Alaves xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Alaves kick off?
Mallorca vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Mallorca vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Alaves part of?
Mallorca vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 28% chance of winning, Alaves a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 3 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.82x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.89x) against Mallorca's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
28%
3.52
34%
2.90
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Alaves xG
3.52
28%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.11 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (12W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Mallorca against 1.14 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mallorca's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Alaves have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Alaves away?
Mallorca's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.32 PPG; Alaves away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Alaves?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 64%, Alaves 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mallorca) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Mallorca have failed to score in 27% of games; Alaves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mallorca's games and 59% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Alaves tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Alaves in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.94 xG and Alaves 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 28% | Draw 34% | Alaves 37%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 41%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Alaves 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.