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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.50 xG and Alaves 1.37 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Alaves attack 1.20 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights