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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.

Alaves have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Mallorca, 0.80 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Mallorca 2W, Alaves 1W, 2D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Alaves 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.50 xG and Alaves 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.909 / defence 1.024 | Alaves attack 1.197 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.120. Data: 63 Mallorca games / 63 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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