Mallorca 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Alaves have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Mallorca, 0.80 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Mallorca 2W, Alaves 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Alaves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.50 xG and Alaves 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.909 / defence 1.024 | Alaves attack 1.197 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.120. Data: 63 Mallorca games / 63 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Mallorca 1.50 / Alaves 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.909 / def 1.024 | Alaves attack 1.197 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Alaves xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Alaves kick off?
Mallorca vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Mallorca vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Alaves part of?
Mallorca vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Alaves a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mallorca and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
Record (5 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 2 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.91x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (1.20x) against Mallorca's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.02
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.87
1.37
Alaves xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.37 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 21D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.08 PPG from 63 outings (17W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mallorca against 1.08 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mallorca's home form reads 11W 12D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.75 points per game from 32 outings (5W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Alaves in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 18W 21D 24L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Alaves have gone 17W 17D 29L in their last 63 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Alaves away?
Mallorca's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Alaves away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Alaves?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 47%, Alaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 34% of games; Alaves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Mallorca's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Alaves tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Alaves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.50 xG and Alaves 1.37 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Alaves attack 1.20 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.