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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Levante 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Levante 0-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.82 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levante fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Villarreal landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Villarreal attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 20% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 55%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Villarreal 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Villarreal's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights