Levante 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Villarreal make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Levante (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Levante's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Villarreal's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Levante's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) — Levante have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Levante, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2022, ended Levante 2–0 Villarreal — a Levante win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 52% versus Villarreal 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Villarreal 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Levante surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Villarreal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.665 / defence 1.339 | Villarreal attack 1.208 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.128. Levante's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Villarreal have an above-average attack rating of 1.208, which lifts their away xG to 1.82. Levante's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Villarreal's projected output up. Data: built from Levante's last 23 games and Villarreal's last 61.
Result probabilities: Levante 20% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 55%. Fair-value odds: Levante 5.09 | Draw 3.90 | Villarreal 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Levante's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levante 60% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 20% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Levante 1.03 / Villarreal 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.665 / def 1.339 | Villarreal attack 1.208 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Villarreal xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levante vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Levante vs Villarreal kick off?
Levante vs Villarreal kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 February 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Villarreal?
Levante 0 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Levante vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Villarreal part of?
Levante vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 20% chance of winning, Villarreal a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Levante and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Levante vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.67x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.21x) against Levante's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from Levante's last 23 games and Villarreal's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
20%
5.09
26%
3.90
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Levante xG
Total xG
2.85
1.82
Villarreal xG
5.09
20%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
3%
31.58
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levante vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Levante and 1.82 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Villarreal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante's recent record stands at 4W 6D 13L from 23 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 14W 3D 6L across 23 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levante have managed 1W 4D 6L from their last 11 home games — 0.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.91 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Levante (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levante
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Levante vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Levante and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 games (0.78 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 14W 3D 6L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.64 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Levante or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Villarreal in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Levante and Villarreal, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Villarreal have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won Villarreal 5-0 Levante on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
0
Draws
4
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Levante vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Villarreal?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Levante have won 1, Villarreal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Villarreal 3-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 64%, Villarreal 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Levante) and 54% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levante vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levante and Villarreal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Levante's games and 64% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Levante and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Levante's recent games and 54% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Levante's recent matches and 73% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Levante 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Levante 0-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.82 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levante fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Villarreal landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Villarreal attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 20% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 55%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Villarreal 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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