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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levante cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Oviedo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Oviedo 4-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.37 xG and Oviedo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oviedo outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Oviedo attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 42% | Draw 28% | Oviedo 29%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 43%, Oviedo 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 0.82 PPG, Oviedo 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights