Levante vs Osasuna Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Levante at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Osasuna.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Osasuna travel to face Levante in La Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Levante (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Osasuna have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Osasuna away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Levante, 0.80 for Osasuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Levante's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) — Levante have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osasuna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Osasuna edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2026, ended Levante 0–0 Osasuna — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Levante — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 52% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Osasuna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 3.10 xG and Osasuna 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.299 / defence 1.254 | Osasuna attack 0.947 / defence 1.567. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.217. Levante carry an above-average attack rating of 1.299 — their 3.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.567 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levante's projected output up. Levante's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Levante's last 50 games and Osasuna's last 50.

Result probabilities: Levante 70% | Draw 16% | Osasuna 14%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.43 | Draw 6.19 | Osasuna 7.10. The model has a clear lean to Levante (70%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (3.10 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 70% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.55 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Levante's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levante 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 60% (last 10 away games).

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