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Prediction vindicated as Levante edge out Osasuna 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Osasuna 3-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 43% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 28%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 41%, Osasuna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 0.97 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights