Levante 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Levante at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Mallorca.

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Match Analysis

Levante host Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Levante — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Levante have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Mallorca stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 1.80 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Levante have won 1, Mallorca 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Levante 1–1 Mallorca — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Levante in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Mallorca in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Mallorca 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 44% | Mallorca 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.972 / defence 1.092 | Mallorca attack 0.839 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: built from Levante's last 36 games and Mallorca's last 74.

Result probabilities: Levante 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 23%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.87 | Draw 4.23 | Mallorca 4.39. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Levante's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levante 40% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 60% (last 10 away games).

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