Levante 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alaves travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante in La Liga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Levante stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Levante's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Alaves have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.90 PPG, Alaves 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Levante have won 1, Alaves 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Levante 1–2 Alaves — a Alaves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alaves trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Alaves 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Alaves 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.603 / defence 1.268 | Alaves attack 0.807 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.135. Levante's attack rating of 0.603 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Levante's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Levante's last 25 games and Alaves's last 63.
Result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.72 | Draw 3.09 | Alaves 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levante 50% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Levante 0.89 / Alaves 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.603 / def 1.268 | Alaves attack 0.807 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Alaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alaves xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levante vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Levante vs Alaves kick off?
Levante vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Alaves?
Levante 2 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Levante vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Alaves part of?
Levante vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 27% chance of winning, Alaves a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levante and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Levante vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.60x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levante's last 25 games and Alaves's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
27%
3.72
32%
3.09
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Levante xG
Total xG
2.05
1.16
Alaves xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levante vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Levante and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Levante and 1.16 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 4W 6D 15L from 25 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 12L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.72 PPG, Alaves on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 1W 4D 7L from their last 12 home games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across their last 12 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Levante (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levante
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Levante vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Levante and Alaves in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 4W 6D 15L in their last 25 games (0.72 PPG), while Alaves have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Alaves away?
Alaves's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.58 PPG; Alaves away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Levante vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Levante have won 2, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 58%, Alaves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 33% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 42% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levante vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levante and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Levante's recent matches and 42% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levante and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Levante's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Alaves 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.60 / defence 1.27 against Alaves attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Alaves 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.72 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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