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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Alaves 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.60 / defence 1.27 against Alaves attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Alaves 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 0.72 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights