🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Leganes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Leganes 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.18 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leganes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 26% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 44%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 33%, Rayo Vallecano 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leganes 1.10 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights