🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Municipal de Butarque to take on Leganes. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Leganes have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estadio Municipal de Butarque — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leganes 1.20 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Leganes have won 0, Rayo Vallecano 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Leganes in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 43% versus Rayo Vallecano 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 33% | Rayo Vallecano 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 0.84 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.764 / defence 1.265 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.796 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.170. Leganes's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Leganes games / 59 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Leganes 26% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 44%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 20% | Rayo Vallecano 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights