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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leganes and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 33, as Leganes and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.35 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Girona attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 41% | Draw 27% | Girona 33%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 38%, Girona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leganes 0.91 PPG, Girona 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights