Leganes 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Butarque plays host to Leganes versus Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Thursday 24 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leganes have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Leganes's home record at Estadio Municipal de Butarque: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Girona (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Leganes, 0.30 for Girona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Leganes, 1 for Girona and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 3–4 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leganes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 44% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 38% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.35 xG and Girona 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.842 / defence 1.164 | Girona attack 0.829 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.225. Girona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Leganes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Leganes games / 70 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 41% | Draw 27% | Girona 33%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Girona 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leganes at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leganes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Leganes 40% | Girona 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 41% | Draw 27% | Girona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Leganes 1.35 / Girona 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.842 / def 1.164 | Girona attack 0.829 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Leganes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Girona xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Girona kick off?
Leganes vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 24 April 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Girona?
Leganes 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Leganes vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Girona part of?
Leganes vs Girona is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 41% chance of winning, Girona a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Leganes and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Leganes 0W | Draws 0 | Girona 1W.
What form are Leganes and Girona in?
Leganes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Girona (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Leganes's attack at 0.84x the league average against Girona's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.83x) against Leganes's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.74
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.53
1.18
Girona xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Leganes and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leganes and 1.18 for Girona, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Leganes have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 6W 11D 15L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 9W 7D 16L from 32 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Leganes against 1.06 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Leganes have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Leganes are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Girona in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while Girona have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Girona away?
Leganes's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.12 PPG; Girona away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
1
Draws
1
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Girona?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Girona have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Leganes 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leganes see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 31%, Girona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Leganes) and 44% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 44% of games; Girona in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Leganes's recent matches and 50% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Leganes's recent games and 44% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Girona tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leganes and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 33, as Leganes and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.35 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Girona attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 41% | Draw 27% | Girona 33%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 38%, Girona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 0.91 PPG, Girona 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.