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Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Espanyol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Las Palmas beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.83 xG and Espanyol 0.91 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Espanyol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Espanyol attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 59% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 18%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 59%, Espanyol 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Espanyol's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.12 PPG, Espanyol 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights