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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Las Palmas and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Las Palmas and Alaves finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.31 xG and Alaves 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Alaves attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.98 PPG, Alaves 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights