Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alaves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Las Palmas have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio de Gran Canaria — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Alaves (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alaves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Las Palmas 1W, Alaves 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 52% versus Alaves 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 40% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.31 xG and Alaves 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.820 / defence 1.158 | Alaves attack 1.157 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.120. Data: 65 Las Palmas games / 65 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 60% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 1 | Alaves 1W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Las Palmas 2 – 3 Alaves • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Las Palmas 33% / Draw 33% / Alaves 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 25% / away 42% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.67 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L • Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W • Las Palmas home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Alaves away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 0 • Form edge: Alaves lead by 0.50 PPG (1.00 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Las Palmas): Poisson projects 1.31 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Alaves): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Las Palmas 6/10, Alaves 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Alaves — Alaves at 42% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Las Palmas 1.31 / Alaves 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.820 / def 1.158 | Alaves attack 1.157 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Alaves xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Alaves kick off?
Las Palmas vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Las Palmas 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Las Palmas vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Alaves part of?
Las Palmas vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 33% chance of winning, Alaves a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Las Palmas and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
• Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 1 | Alaves 1W • Goals trend: 1.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Las Palmas 2 – 3 Alaves • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Las Palmas 33% / Draw 33% / Alaves 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 33% / draw 25% / away 42% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.67 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in?
• Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L • Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W • Las Palmas home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Alaves away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 0 • Form edge: Alaves lead by 0.50 PPG (1.00 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Las Palmas): Poisson projects 1.31 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Alaves): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Las Palmas 6/10, Alaves 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Alaves — Alaves at 42% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Las Palmas vs Alaves?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture