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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Fri 14 Mar 2025

20:00

Venue

Estadio de Gran Canaria

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Alaves Win

33%

Las Palmas

3.02

25%

Draw

3.98

42%

Alaves

2.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.0%

Away win

1 – 2

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.31

Las Palmas xG

Total xG

2.81

1.50

Alaves xG

33%
25%
42%
Las PalmasDrawAlaves

3.02

33%

Home win

3.98

25%

Draw

2.39

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.31

Clean Sheet

22%

Las Palmas

4.49

27%

Alaves

3.70

Win to Nil

7%

Las Palmas

13.56

11%

Alaves

8.85

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.0 9.0 6.8 3.4 1.3 0.4
1 7.9 11.8 8.9 4.4 1.7 0.5
2 5.2 7.7 5.8 2.9 1.1 0.3
3 2.2 3.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
4 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.308
λ Away (xG) 1.501
Total xG 2.809
League avg home goals 1.430
League avg away goals 1.120
Las Palmas attack strength 0.820
Las Palmas defence strength 1.158
Alaves attack strength 1.157
Alaves defence strength 1.115
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 65