Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Granada CF at 39%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Granada CF vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Celta Vigo travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Granada CF stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Granada CF's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Celta Vigo have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Celta Vigo away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Celta Vigo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Granada CF have won 0, Celta Vigo 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Granada CF 0–1 Celta Vigo — a Celta Vigo win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Granada CF trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Celta Vigo trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 50% versus Celta Vigo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 44% | Celta Vigo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Granada CF surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Celta Vigo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.44 xG and Celta Vigo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.865 / defence 1.283 | Celta Vigo attack 0.966 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Celta Vigo's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 36 games and Celta Vigo's last 74.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 39% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 35%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.54 | Draw 3.96 | Celta Vigo 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Granada CF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Granada CF's last 10 home games and Celta Vigo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Granada CF 30% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).

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