Alaves 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Alaves's home record at Estadio de Mendizorroza: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Alaves against 0.90 for Getafe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Alaves 0W, Getafe 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Getafe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 36% versus Getafe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 31% | Getafe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.38 xG and Getafe 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.943 / defence 0.951 | Getafe attack 0.940 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.102. Data: 36 Alaves games / 74 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Getafe 3.70. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Alaves 1.38 / Getafe 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.943 / def 0.951 | Getafe attack 0.940 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Alaves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Getafe xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Getafe kick off?
Alaves vs Getafe kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Alaves 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Alaves vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Getafe part of?
Alaves vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 46% chance of winning, Getafe a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alaves and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 2 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Alaves and Getafe in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.94) and Getafe's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.94x) against Alaves's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.68
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Getafe xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Alaves and 0.98 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 9D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Alaves against 1.19 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 2W 8D 8L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.14 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Getafe in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Getafe have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Getafe away?
Alaves's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.56 PPG; Getafe away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Getafe?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Getafe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Alaves 0-2 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 39%, Getafe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Alaves) and 56% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 28% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Alaves's recent games and 56% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Getafe tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Getafe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.38 xG and Getafe 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Getafe attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 46% | Draw 27% | Getafe 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 31%, Getafe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.17 PPG, Getafe 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.