Mallorca 2-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Almeria at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Almeria 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Almeria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 40% versus Almeria 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 28% | Almeria 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.13 xG and Almeria 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.701 / defence 0.802 | Almeria attack 1.061 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Mallorca games / 74 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Almeria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Almeria 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Mallorca 1.13 / Almeria 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.701 / def 0.802 | Almeria attack 1.061 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Almeria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Almeria kick off?
Mallorca vs Almeria kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Mallorca 2 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Mallorca vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Almeria part of?
Mallorca vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Almeria a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Almeria in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Almeria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Almeria xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.93 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 21W 23D 30L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 13W 19D 42L from 74 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.16 PPG, Almeria on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.62 PPG from 37 outings (16W 12D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almeria have gone 3W 8D 26L from 37 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.14 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 64%.
Last 74 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Almeria in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 21W 23D 30L in their last 74 games (1.16 PPG), while Almeria have gone 13W 19D 42L in their last 74 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Almeria away?
Mallorca's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.62 PPG; Almeria away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almeria in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Almeria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Almeria won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Mallorca 2-2 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 38%, Almeria 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Mallorca) and 62% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games; Almeria in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mallorca's recent matches and 68% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Mallorca's recent games and 62% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Almeria tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Almeria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Almeria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Almeria finished level at 2-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.13 xG and Almeria 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almeria outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.80 against Almeria attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 30% | Almeria 30%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 28%, Almeria 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Almeria 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.