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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Girona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.31 xG and Villarreal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Villarreal attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Villarreal's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.65 PPG, Villarreal 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights