Girona 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Girona face Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Villarreal meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Villarreal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Villarreal's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Villarreal are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Girona, 3 for Villarreal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 56% and Villarreal 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Villarreal 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.31 xG and Villarreal 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.948 / defence 1.111 | Villarreal attack 1.026 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.190. Data: 72 Girona games / 72 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Villarreal 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Girona 1.31 / Villarreal 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.948 / def 1.111 | Villarreal attack 1.026 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Villarreal xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Villarreal kick off?
Girona vs Villarreal kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Girona 0 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Girona vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Villarreal part of?
Girona vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 36% chance of winning, Villarreal a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Girona and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
Record (5 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Girona and Villarreal in?
Girona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.95) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.03x) against Girona's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.85
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Girona xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Villarreal xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Girona and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Girona and 1.36 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Girona have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 35W 14D 23L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Girona against 1.54 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.97 PPG from 36 outings (22W 5D 9L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 16W 9D 11L from 36 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Girona are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.74 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 75%.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 35W 14D 23L in their last 72 games (1.65 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Villarreal away?
Girona's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.97 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Girona 1-0 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 53%, Villarreal 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Girona and 58% for Villarreal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Girona's games and 72% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Girona's matches and 58% of Villarreal's.
Do Girona and Villarreal tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.31 xG and Villarreal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Villarreal attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.65 PPG, Villarreal 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.