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Dominant Girona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valladolid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Valladolid 3-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.65 xG and Valladolid 1.08 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Valladolid attack 0.77 / defence 1.48, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 53%, Valladolid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Valladolid's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights