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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Girona 1-3 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.19 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 34% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 39%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 55%, Rayo Vallecano 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.08 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights