Girona 1-3 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Girona haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Girona's home record at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Rayo Vallecano haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rayo Vallecano's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rayo Vallecano are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Girona, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 53% versus Rayo Vallecano 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 55% | Rayo Vallecano 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.19 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.890 / defence 1.130 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.962 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.199. Data: 38 Girona games / 38 Rayo Vallecano games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Girona 34% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 39%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Rayo Vallecano 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Rayo Vallecano 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 34% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Girona 1.19 / Rayo Vallecano 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.890 / def 1.130 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.962 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Rayo Vallecano xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Girona 1 - 3 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 34% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Girona and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (6 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 3 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Girona (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Girona's attack at 0.89x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.70
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Girona xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Girona and 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 11W 8D 19L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. Girona haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 12L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. Rayo Vallecano haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.08 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Pre-Season
Rayo Vallecano
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 13W 13D 12L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Rayo Vallecano's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.26 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Rayo Vallecano runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
4
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 53%, Rayo Vallecano 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Girona) and 37% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 32%; Girona have failed to score in 32% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Girona's recent matches and 47% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Girona's recent games and 37% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Girona 1-3 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.19 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 34% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 39%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 55%, Rayo Vallecano 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.08 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.