Valencia 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valencia at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Getafe make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla.
Getafe have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Valencia's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Getafe's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Valencia, 2 for Getafe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Getafe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Getafe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Getafe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.62 xG and Getafe 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.957 / defence 0.786 | Getafe attack 1.044 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.118. Valencia's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Valencia games / 65 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Getafe 5.26. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 40% | Getafe 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Valencia 1.62 / Getafe 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.957 / def 0.786 | Getafe attack 1.044 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Valencia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Getafe xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Getafe kick off?
Valencia vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Getafe?
Valencia 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Valencia vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Getafe part of?
Valencia vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 51% chance of winning, Getafe a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Getafe?
Record (5 meetings): Valencia 2W | Draws 1 | Getafe 2W.
What form are Valencia and Getafe in?
Valencia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Getafe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.96) and Getafe's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.04x) against Valencia's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
51%
1.94
29%
3.40
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.53
0.92
Getafe xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Valencia and 0.92 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia's recent record stands at 21W 16D 27L from 64 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 23L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Valencia against 1.20 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 15W 9D 8L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Getafe's away record stands at 4W 13D 15L across 32 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Getafe in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Getafe have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Getafe away?
Valencia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.69 PPG; Getafe away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Valencia or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Getafe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 5-1 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Valencia
2
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 6, Getafe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Getafe 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Getafe?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 44%, Getafe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Valencia) and 44% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Getafe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Getafe tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Getafe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.62 xG and Getafe 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against Getafe attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 19%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Getafe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.23 PPG, Getafe 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.