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Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Girona 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 22%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Mallorca 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.11 PPG, Mallorca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights