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Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Las Palmas 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Las Palmas 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 1.35 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Las Palmas attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 48% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 29%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Las Palmas 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Las Palmas's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights