🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Girona at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Las Palmas travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Girona — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Las Palmas away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.60 PPG versus Las Palmas's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Girona have won 2, Las Palmas 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Las Palmas winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Girona in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Las Palmas 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Las Palmas 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.171 / defence 1.177 | Las Palmas attack 1.018 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.130. Data: 59 Girona games / 59 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 48% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 29%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Las Palmas 3.45. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Las Palmas 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights