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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.72 xG and Alaves 1.59 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Alaves attack 1.14 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 41% | Draw 23% | Alaves 36%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights