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Poisson rates Girona at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Alaves encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Girona welcome Alaves to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Girona) versus 1.00 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Girona, 0 for Alaves and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Girona winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Girona in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).

Alaves in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Alaves 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Alaves 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.72 xG and Alaves 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.078 / defence 1.169 | Alaves attack 1.135 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.199. Data: 67 Girona games / 67 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 41% | Draw 23% | Alaves 36%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 70% | Alaves 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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