Getafe 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Getafe face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Cadiz meet at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Getafe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cadiz's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Getafe, 0.70 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Getafe edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2023, ended Getafe 2–2 Cadiz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Getafe — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 47% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 41% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.41 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.825 / defence 0.809 | Cadiz attack 0.807 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.215. Data: built from Getafe's last 49 games and Cadiz's last 49.
Result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.96 | Draw 3.55 | Cadiz 4.84. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Getafe's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Getafe 50% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Getafe 1.41 / Cadiz 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.825 / def 0.809 | Cadiz attack 0.807 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Getafe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cadiz xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Cadiz kick off?
Getafe vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Getafe 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Getafe vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Cadiz part of?
Getafe vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 51% chance of winning, Cadiz a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Getafe and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Getafe vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.82) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.81x) against Getafe's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 49 games and Cadiz's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.55
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.20
0.79
Cadiz xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Getafe and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Getafe and 0.79 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 18D 19L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Cadiz's form line: 12W 16D 21L from 49 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Getafe against 1.06 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 7D 14L from their last 24 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.82 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Getafe (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Getafe vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Cadiz away?
Getafe's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.50 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Getafe or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won Getafe 4-0 Cadiz on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Cadiz?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 46%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Getafe and 29% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Getafe's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Getafe's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Cadiz 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.41 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Cadiz attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 41%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.10 PPG, Cadiz 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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