Granada CF 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Getafe at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Granada CF welcome Getafe to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Getafe — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Granada CF, 1 for Getafe and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2022, ended 2–4 with Getafe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Getafe trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 67% versus Getafe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 58% | Getafe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.71 xG and Getafe 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 1.026 / defence 1.490 | Getafe attack 1.006 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.232. Data: 12 Granada CF games / 50 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 22% | Getafe 42%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Getafe 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 83% | Getafe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 22% | Getafe 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Granada CF 1.71 / Getafe 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 1.026 / def 1.490 | Getafe attack 1.006 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Getafe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Getafe xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Getafe kick off?
Granada CF vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Getafe?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Granada CF vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Getafe part of?
Granada CF vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 36% chance of winning, Getafe a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Granada CF and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Getafe?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Getafe in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Getafe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 1.03x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
36%
2.78
22%
4.48
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Granada CF xG
Total xG
3.55
1.85
Getafe xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.85 for Getafe, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF's recent record stands at 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 3L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Getafe by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.42 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Getafe in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Getafe in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Getafe have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Getafe away?
Granada CF's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.83 PPG; Getafe away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Getafe in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Granada CF's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
2
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Getafe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Getafe 2-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 83%, Getafe at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Granada CF and 83% for Getafe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Getafe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Getafe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Granada CF's games and 67% of Getafe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Granada CF's matches and 83% of Getafe's.
Do Granada CF and Getafe tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Getafe in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.71 xG and Getafe 1.85 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Getafe landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 1.03 / defence 1.49 against Getafe attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 36% | Draw 22% | Getafe 42%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 58%, Getafe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Getafe arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Granada CF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.