Alaves 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Alaves welcome Almeria to Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Alaves have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Almeria trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 46% and Almeria 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 18% | Almeria 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.76 xG and Almeria 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.749 / defence 1.233 | Almeria attack 0.932 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Alaves's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Alaves games / 49 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Almeria 3.33. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Almeria 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Alaves 1.76 / Almeria 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.749 / def 1.233 | Almeria attack 0.932 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Alaves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Almeria xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Almeria kick off?
Alaves vs Almeria kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Almeria?
Alaves 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Alaves vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Almeria part of?
Alaves vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 45% chance of winning, Almeria a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alaves and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Almeria in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.13
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.18
1.41
Almeria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Alaves and 1.41 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 0W 3D 8L from 11 games, 0.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alaves are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.27 scored and 2.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 82%.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Almeria in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Almeria away?
Alaves's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.40 PPG; Almeria away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Almeria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Almeria?
From 2 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Almeria 0-3 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Almeria?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 40%, Almeria 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Alaves) and 80% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Alaves's games and 80% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alaves's recent games and 80% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Almeria tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Almeria in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.76 xG and Almeria 1.41 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Almeria attack 0.93 / defence 1.55, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 18%, Almeria 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 0.82 PPG against 0.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.