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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Rayo Vallecano 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.35 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.08 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 43% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 30%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 42%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (52 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (52 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.27 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights