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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Elche and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.91 xG and Alaves 1.44 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Elche fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Alaves attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 49% | Draw 22% | Alaves 29%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 62%, Alaves 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.12 PPG, Alaves 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights