🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Alaves 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.69 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.18 / defence 0.71 against Alaves attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 56% | Draw 24% | Alaves 20%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 40%, Alaves 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alaves's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights