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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 28, as Alaves and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.36 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Villarreal attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights