Alaves 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 46% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 38% | Villarreal 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.82 xG and Villarreal 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.641 / defence 1.007 | Villarreal attack 1.167 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.136. Alaves's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Alaves games / 63 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Villarreal 2.04. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 50% | Villarreal 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Alaves 0.82 / Villarreal 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.641 / def 1.007 | Villarreal attack 1.167 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Villarreal xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 23% chance of winning, Villarreal a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 2 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.64) and Villarreal's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
23%
4.34
28%
3.55
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.16
1.33
Villarreal xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Alaves and 1.33 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 18D 28L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 26W 19D 18L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 13W 9D 9L from 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.79 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 78%.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 18D 28L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 26W 19D 18L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 39%, Villarreal 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Alaves) and 58% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Alaves's games and 77% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Alaves's recent games and 58% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Villarreal tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.82 xG and Villarreal 1.33 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against Villarreal attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.