Alaves vs Sevilla Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Alaves at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Sevilla.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Mendizorrotza plays host to Alaves versus Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Alaves have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Alaves's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sevilla's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Alaves, 1.20 for Sevilla — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Alaves's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sevilla in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Alaves edge it 3 wins to 1, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2026, ended Alaves 0–0 Sevilla — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Alaves — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Sevilla — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 62% and Sevilla 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 50% | Sevilla 56%). Note also that Sevilla surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Alaves recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.88 xG and Sevilla 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.013 / defence 1.020 | Sevilla attack 1.165 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.218. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 50 games and Sevilla's last 50.

Result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 28%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.16 | Draw 3.93 | Sevilla 3.53. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 60% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 70% (last 10 away games).

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