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Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Real Sociedad 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Real Sociedad 1-0 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.20 xG and Real Sociedad 1.11 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Real Sociedad attack 1.06 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 33%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Real Sociedad 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights